Keywords: migration, crime, education, integration, multiculturalism

References: 'The Art Of The Long View' and 'Inevitable Surprises' by Peter Schwartz, media

Date: March 2004

SCENARIO PLANNING

Driving forces: Migrations (mention of Spain and the European Union).

Among the current driving forces I have chosen migration because even though it’s an old phenomenon, I have seen it develop in a clear way during the last few years.

Putting aside the floods of people from the countryside to the city (specially important during the 60s) and concentrating on international migrations, during the XXth century, Spain was pretty much origin of migrations, rather than a reception country. The Civil War (1936-1939) and subsequent Franco’s dictatorship, along with a slow economic development during those years, forced many Spanish people to exile or search for opportunities in Central Europe and Latin America primarily. Today, Spain has serious problems to deal with the huge amounts of immigrants from the North of Africa, Latin America, China, the Caucasus and Pakistan who enter the country looking for a job, running away from an unsustainable situation in their homeland or willing to meet their relatives.

But this phenomenon doesn’t circumscribe to Spain. The European Union is experiencing serious tensions to handle a growing immigrant population, mainly coming from the Muslim world, and the United States has a secular tradition to take in immigrants, thus in a way is a more prepared society to deal with incoming population. Looking at it from the other side of the flow, a demographic superpower such as China is going to be the main emigration source.

Predetermined Elements. By the year 2012, the profile of Western societies is going to change dramatically. Emigration processes don’t take place in countries that benefit from a welfare society, but in underdeveloped or overpopulated countries. First of all, societies that have traditionally been quite closed are going to become multiethnic, especially because in these aging societies, immigrants tend to have more children and raise the birth rate. This will imply that the pensions and social security systems are going to rely heavily on these newcomers, and that younger generations will climb up from their immigrant status to become active parts in their societies.

Immigrants will also replicate the criminal networks in their homeland in their new country (as seen with Colombian and Russian mafias in Spain), and populations most notably coming from countries where a language other than the official one at the destination country is spoken are going to settle down in ghettoes, which is going to difficult their integration and will bring about a negative perception of the immigrants and social conflict, specially in depressed economic cycles.Right wing parties are going to become more important, what will originate conservative governmental policies that will try to contempt new arrivals and will do no good to the integration of the immigrated population. Regarding the European Union (EU), it can also be that the EU develops a new sensitivity towards the concept of race, and that it starts protection to minorities programs.

With the abolition of internal borders within the EU (extended to 25 members in a few months) set out by the Schengen Agreement, immigrants are free to move within a large territory, and this poses new risks for security, specially when facing terrorist threats, that particularly concern the large Muslim population in Europe. A new dimension to this problem could be reached if Turkey was admitted into the EU, because a door to Muslim immigration would have been clearly opened.

In any case, Europe faces a new cultural complexity, the adoption of new values and the challenge of achieving a balance between the integration of a needed working force and the suspicions of the native population.

Critical Uncertainty. In order to face this new scenario, new laws and regulations are going to be needed. First to control the human floods crossing the borders and second to provide those who enter the country decent working and residence conditions.

The EU will have to reach new agreements with origin countries to work together to control these human floods, but more than that, economic and social actions on these countries need to be carried out to improve the life conditions of potential immigrants in order to dissuade them to leave their homelands.

Reception societies will have to provide qualified immigrants with opportunities to develop their skills and take advantage of these qualified workers. Also, European countries face the challenge of integrating immigrated children with different levels of instruction, from different countries and speaking different languages, into the local education system and the local culture, which also helps to create links between families who could be living in ghettos in receptive societies.

A global police authority needs to be fostered to fight terrorism and crime. Just as the attacks on 09/11 pushed international police corps to work more closely these connections need to be tightened.

Finally, mass media could help to normalize the new multicultural society by reflecting this diversity and presenting it in a positive way.